AI HAS STARTED A LAYOFF RACE (pt. 2)
But it is not firing everyone.
It is making it harder for new people to get hired.
Yesterday, I wrote about a paper that describes an AI-driven layoff race.
So what does the real market look like?
Not mass unemployment.
Not yet.
But something quieter is already happening.
"Block" just cut more than 4,000 people — from over 10,000 to under 6,000.
This was not a company collapsing.
"Block" had a strong year. Profits were growing.
The bet was simple: a smaller team with AI can do more.
That is the shift.
It does not start with firing an entire profession overnight.
It starts with not replacing the person who leaves.
With fewer junior roles. Fewer assistants. Fewer entry-level tasks. Fewer simple freelance projects.
The first thing that disappears is not the job.
It is the first rung of the ladder.
Yes, AI is already everywhere at work. In the U.S., 55% of workers say they use it for at least one task.
But using AI to write an email is not the same as a company rebuilding itself around AI.
Only 18% of U.S. firms formally use AI in a business function. And among those, most use it to help people do their work — not to cut jobs.
So we are not at “AI replaced everyone.”
We are at: “the same amount of office work, with fewer new people coming in.”
And there is an early warning sign.
A U.S. Census working paper found a 12% decline in employment among 22–24-year-olds in the most AI-exposed parts of the economy over 10 quarters after ChatGPT launched.
The authors are careful: COVID, remote work, and education may also be part of the story.
But the pattern matters.
Companies may not fire every senior employee.
They may simply stop giving beginners their first chance.
You can keep your job — and still watch the ladder behind you lose its first steps.
Freelancers: are you seeing fewer small projects? Or clients expecting one person to do the work of three?
Next: “Oh, my dear investors — look, I’m AI-native!”
